Intelligence Briefing and Incident Mapping: Monday 2 November 2026
Incident mapping across Nigeria, the Sahel, the Horn of Africa and the Gulf for 2 November 2026: bandit ambushes in Zamfara, JNIM claims in Mali and RSF drone strikes in Sudan.
Archive
Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger: Security, Political and Economic Assessment
Three years after its creation, the Alliance of Sahel States has consolidated politically but is losing the war that justified it. An assessment of the armed groups and options for the AU, ECOWAS and Nigeria.
Intelligence Advisory: The Sahelian Security Convergence and Implications for Nigeria
From Algeria's military projection into Niger to the Sudan–Gulf nexus and the Strait of Hormuz, an arc of instability now threatens Nigeria's borders, infrastructure and regional leadership.
Regional Security Realignment: US–Cameroon, Algeria–Niger and the Trans-African Instability Belt
The US–Cameroon BIR deal and Algeria's deployment to Niger may contain threats at the edges, but risk a balloon effect that pushes armed groups into Nigeria's under-policed hinterlands.
Intelligence Briefing and Incident Mapping: Tuesday 3 November 2026
Key developments for 3 November 2026: the Zamfara police ambush, Uganda's Somalia drawdown, fighting in Ethiopia and Sudan's complaint to the UN, plus the day's incident map.